SAFE HAVENS

For vast numbers of Americans, and for much of the world,

the “best of times” are gone and the “worst of times,”

though not yet upon us, are imminent. To prepare for those

worst of times, Gerald Celente has long recommended

“GC’s 3 Gs”: Gold, Guns and a Getaway plan. 2012 will be

the year in which acting upon GC’s 3 Gs grows from a contrarian

preoccupation into a full-fledged trend.

Gold and diamonds, as well as other precious metals

and gemstones, are viable options for those with the money

to buy enough to tide them through a period of financial

turmoil in which, we believe, there will be an assault

on most fiat currencies. For those without deep pockets,

silver will serve as a substitute, though in the case of a

quick getaway, carrying a quantity of silver can prove burdensome

(it takes 50 plus ounces of silver to equal one

ounce of gold in value).

Stockpiling protective gear and weapons makes sense

for those who fear that, as economic systems cave in,

crime will inevitably rise. Even people who would never

have considered committing a crime will snap under the

economic pressure. As Gerald Celente says, “When people

lose everything and they have nothing left to lose, they

lose it.” Add these nouveau criminals to a growing population

of professional criminals and the already ubiquitous

street gangs, and random crime will become daily

prime-time news. Learning self-defense techniques and

how to use weapons will be on the minds of ordinary citizens

who never before gave it a thought.

A heightened sense of danger and the signs of social

dissolution will provide the impetus for serious thinking

about developing a realistic getaway plan … that comes in

two main varieties:

Emergency Escape: Should terrorists strike, a nuclear

plant melt down, or a natural disaster occur, having an

emergency getaway plan in place could mean the differ

ence between life and death. Knowing where to go and

what routes to travel, and gathering essentials to protect

and sustain yourself for as long as the emergency lasts

cannot be accomplished without preparation. Another

Celente saying: “If you don’t plan for the worst and the

worst happens, you’ve lost everything. But if you plan

for the worst and nothing happens, you’ve lost nothing.”

Long Farewell: It’s happened before and will happen

again. Nations become economically depressed, socially

intolerable or politically hostile, and leaving one’s homeland

permanently becomes a realistic goal for those willing

and able to pull up stakes and start over.

Where to Go, What to Do and Who’s Going

to be Doing It? There are several classes of

Long Farewell candidates. One class is comprised of the

swelling ranks of educated young people leaving developed

countries for foreign shores in the hope of finding gainful

employment in the aftermath of the collapse of their own

economies. Another group is the young and educated from

very poor countries for whom refuge in any country in better

shape than their own represents upward mobility. Still

another group is comprised of the impoverished multitudes

of uneducated poor fleeing the ravages of war, and/or a total

lack of subsistence employment in their homelands. For

them, there are no options to choose from.

Finally, there are the Long Farewellers who want to leave

their homeland because they don’t trust their government,

fear further economic and political repression, or simply

seek a retirement haven where they can live better on less,

especially since the financial crisis has suddenly left them

with much less than they thought they had.

It is this class of expats-in-waiting whose “Safe Haven”

concerns we address. They include those among

the 76 million American Baby Boomers who no longer

consider the United States a safe or healthy place

to live. All are growing old; though some are affluent,

many others have small nest eggs, and modest retirement

funds and pensions. What these Safe Haven candidates

all have in common is a need for a comfortable

and secure refuge from the land they once called their

own. (Disintegrating Europe will develop a version of

the Baby Boomer expat as its generous social safety

nets get torn to shreds.)

Editor’s Note: In a recent Bertelsmann Foundation Study

on social justice, the US finished dead last – yes, dead

last – among the world’s richest countries in the quality

of life issues that make a country a desirable, comfortable

place to live. “Whether in poverty prevention, child poverty,

income inequality or health ratings, the United States

ranked below countries like Spain and South Korea, not

to mention Japan, Germany or France, with only Greece,

Chile and Turkey faring worse,” wrote Jorge Casteneda

(former foreign minister to Mexico and professor of Latin

American and Caribbean studies at New York University)

in The New York Times.

Nevertheless, dead last or not, the Safe Haven choices

are limited. In the truest sense, it’s a small world after all.

Short List of Premium Destinations Still

keeping its decades-long ranking as a US favorite getaway

is the environmental and health haven of Costa Rica. Just

a few hours by air, this Central American nation – a land

of lush mountains, thick forests and shimmering beaches

bordered to the west by the Pacific Ocean and to the east

by the Caribbean Sea – may be the most readily accessible

antidote to Battlefield America, and certainly a spot where

you can use your gold but won’t need a gun.

It abolished its military more than 60 years ago. Its

healthcare system, which provides care for virtually all, is

ranked higher than that of the United States. On the environmental

performance index, Costa Rica places third

in the world and first in the Americas – compared to the

United States’ ranking of 61.

There are other places in South America with safe haven

reputations, but typical of them all, as their history

has shown, is that at any time they can explode or implode.

What may be stable during one election cycle may transform

into a police state in the next. For example, there are

safe haven expat communities in Mexico. They may prove

comfortable places for extended stays, but with Mexico’s

long history of corruption and drug war instability, it may

not be prudent to plant permanent roots. The same applies

to Panama, El Salvador, Chile and other South American

countries that are attracting foreigners with the financial

means to buy and own property (when permitted).

For example, resource-rich Argentina – attractively Europeanized

and geographically isolated at the southern extremity

of South America, with a temperate climate and

stunning landscapes – has always been high on the safe

haven list. But it has a long history of major internal socioeconomic

turmoil and periodic descents into dictatorship.

Even when times look good, they can suddenly turn

bad. In late December 2011, a new Argentine law was

passed that trumps even

America’s iniquitous National

Defense Authorization Act.

Fifteen-year prison sentences

can be imposed upon people

for transgressions as diverse as

marching in protests or pulling money out of banks. The

moral: Anyone contemplating a safe haven route should

do extensive due diligence.

Another South American spot well worth considering

is a country that hasn’t been on the mainstream radar

screen: Uruguay. But it’s a place many have been discovering

lately. On the southeastern coast of South America,

bordered by Brazil and the Atlantic Ocean, Uruguay now

has the highest rate of foreign investment of any Latin

American country, with visa applications up some 300

percent in recent years.

Much of that investment occurred in the past decade,

when so many other countries were hemorrhaging jobs

and money. That’s because Uruguay is the only country

in the Americas that did not suffer a recession in the past

few years.

One reason for its success may be that its citizens are

freer thinking than their North American counterparts.

Uruguay was the first country in South America to legalize

same-sex marriage. It was also the first nation in the

world to provide each of its children with a laptop. Even

the most mainstream sources are beginning to recognize

Uruguay’s potential as a safe haven.

Reader’s Digest ranked the country – with beach cities

like Punta Del Este and big cities like Montevideo – the

ninth most livable, greenest country in the world.

Not even under consideration as an expat “Promised

Land” for the last 50 years, Cuba, just 90 miles from the

US mainland, may soon be high on the radar screen. Already

a travel destination for Europeans and Canadians, as

it sheds its rigid communist past and moves toward a more

open and free-market society, Cuba, with its highly educated

populace and its advanced health care, holds great

potential as both a boomer and bohemian safe haven.

Where else in the World? Traditional preferred

getaways in Europe, such as France, Spain or Italy, have

lost their safe haven ranking. “You want to stay out of

the line of fire, whether it’s geopolitical or economic,” observes

Gerald Celente. With the euro zone in crisis and

economic conditions steadily deteriorating, public services

are being dramatically curtailed, students and retirees

retirees

are rioting, and citizens

in many of the more troubled

EMU countries are looking to

escape themselves to greener,

if not safe haven, pastures.

Switzerland, despite its

currency issues and recently weakened reputation for

banking confidentially, still remains high on the list of

where to go and stay safe … as long as you’re wealthy

enough to afford living there.

Among the Scandinavian countries, Norway, Finland

and Sweden get high marks for quality of life, standard

of living and universal health care. But while Finland

and Sweden are members of the debt-ridden European

Monetary Union, Norway is not and therefore will not be

obliged to help bail out troubled members, nor be subject

to EMU charter restrictions. With virtually no debt, Norway,

one of the largest producers of oil and natural gas

outside the Middle East, is among the wealthiest countries

in the world. Even though it’s swimming in oil, Norway

is among the top five countries for a clean environment,

according to the Environmental Performance Index compiled

by Yale and Columbia Universities. America ranks

61st, while Sweden and Finland are among the top 20 and

Costa Rica is ranked third.

Closer to home, Canada provides a quick getaway destination

for expat Americans. However, because of its

tight links to the US in trade, finance and foreign policy,

Americans could be subject to extradition for even minor

violations. And, should economic conditions severely deteriorate,

Canadian politicians may well take an American

hard-right turn toward Fascism, using fear and hysteria to

maintain control of a restive population.

High on the list as a Long Farewell safe haven is New

Zealand. The island nation of forests and volcanoes has

such livable, prosperous cities as Wellington, Auckland,

and Christchurch, all with a mild maritime climate. English

is spoken by 98 percent of the people, and it’s a place

where folks can’t help – literally – to be sunny, since it has

2,000 hours of sunshine per year. It is, however, earthquake

prone. Christchurch suffered an estimated $30 billion

in damage, and some 200 deaths, from a series of

strong quakes over the past year and a half.

Lower on the down-under Long Farewell list is Australia,

primarily for the same reasons that make Canada less attractive:

its close military and foreign policy ties to the United

States. But even with the downside, there is a tremendous

vitality and a can-do, pioneering spirit to Aussie life.

For those with a hankering for old world European

charm, there’s tiny Andorra, landlocked in the mountains

between France and Spain. A tax haven and duty free, it’s

not a member of the European Union, although the euro

is the currency. It has the fourth highest life expectancy

of any country in the world, and it provides free health

care to all its workers. And even though it’s a snowy alpine

destination for skiers, the sun shines 300 days of the year.

Safe Haven Minefields Opting for a safe haven

away from Battlefield America or a fractured Europe takes

a serious commitment – and some serious money that,

with luck, is safely stashed away in gold.

But while requirements for residency and citizenship

are as varied as the havens themselves, a general rule

for your getaway plan is: Be prepared for a bureaucratic

nightmare and consider more than one safe haven option.

It takes more time and money to establish residency, or,

ultimately, citizenship, in European countries like Norway

and Andorra. South American havens like Costa Rica and

Uruguay are generally easier on the red tape, although

both require a long-term financial commitment.

You’ll need a passport or proof of your identity (generally

a birth certificate) along with evidence that you have

no criminal record and can support yourself. You will not

need to own property in your haven, although Andorra

requires that you either rent or own a home there. If fact,

our recommendation is to rent before you buy. Love at first

sight does not mean love forever. An extended reconnaissance

is advisable.

And while the US government apparently, and amazingly,

does not keep track – publicly at least – of how many

Americans are leaving the country for good or for long,

enough are doing so that the Internet abounds with “experts”

offering all varieties of services to help in the move

to another country. Beware. Your best bet is to check out

your safe haven favorites yourself.

GUIDEPOSTS

To get you started, or at least thinking about places to

consider for your getaway plan, we have included this

brief guide.

Norway: To become a citizen you must first become

a resident, which requires establishing residency for a

minimum of three years, without a gap of more than three

months. The easiest way to gain residence is to either marry

a Norwegian or get a job in a field the country needs,

such as science or energy. Once you become a permanent

resident, you have to live in the country for seven years

within a ten-year period, and learn Norwegian.

New Zealand: To become a citizen, you must first take

up residence for five years, and you must live there about

eight months of each of those years. Residency is granted

by means of a point system based on professional abilities

or family ties, or (necessary if you’re over 56) money

available to invest. You must also prove you’re of “good

character,” with no criminal record.

Costa Rica: There are four ways to become a permanent

resident of Costa Rica, and virtually all of them require

money. To retire there, you must prove you have at

least $1,000 per month, without working, and stay at least

four months a year. To become a legal resident you must

show you have an income of at least $2,500 per month or

$150,000 in savings without working there, and also stay

four months a year. If you want to start a business or buy

a home, you must invest at least $200,000 in either. Or, of

course, you can marry a Costa Rican citizen.

Uruguay: A virtual breeze. You can stay as long as you

want as a temporary resident, as long as you can prove you

have an income of at least $500 per month. After a year,

you can get permanent residency. After three to five years,

you can apply for citizenship.

Andorra: This mountainous country between France

and Spain may be a tax haven, but it will cost you to live

there. First, you have to pay a refundable bond of about

30,000 euros. Then you have to prove you have more than

300 percent of the yearly minimum wage in the bank

(about $30,000). And along with agreeing to live in Andorra

at least 183 days a year, you have to own or rent

property. Half the country’s population of 85,000 are immigrants,

and it takes 20 years of living and working in

Andorra to acquire citizenship.

But in many ways Andorra is not the haven it used to

be. The four-year economic slump that hit the euro zone

has taken its toll. Tourism, a major source of income, is

down some 30 percent. And like so many countries of the

euro zone, its real estate bubble burst and the economy

has shrunk by 12 percent over the past four years.

Along with these requirements, a few things you and your

family will need before you leave for any safe haven are:

an on-line bank account, vaccinations, credit card company

notifications and, just to be safe, health insurance

that works in your new home. Again, checking with the

country you’re going to is a must. And health insurance

could prove essential, because a number of countries are

not keen on taking in seniors who statistically will be in

need of substantial health care.

And remember this Catch 22: Battlefield America

probably won’t release you from its war zone. The 2010

Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act (Fatca) subjects

American expatriates to daunting and burdensome tax returns

that are extremely difficult to comply with and carry

harsh penalties for unintentional errors. “The Fatca Legislation

treats all Americans with overseas bank accounts

as criminals, even though most of them are honest, hardworking

individuals who happen to be living and working

or retired abroad,” observes Jacqueline Bugnion, a director

of American Citizens Abroad.

So tight is Uncle Sam’s grip that Americans cannot

even relinquish citizenship unless they first obtain citizenship

somewhere else (which in practice is difficult to

do). Another consideration is to obtain a dual passport

even before seeking a safe haven harbor. Certain countries

provide passports for people whose families emigrated

abroad within specific time limits.

Editor’s Note: There are other viable options that may

suit individual needs and we will continue to add to our

“Safe Haven” list in upcoming Trends Journals. n

From Gerald Celente's THE TRENDS JOURNAL

Vol. XX, No. 29 Winter Issue • 2012